State Legislatures, Ideology, and the Future of the Democratic Party.

Tom Schaller at fiverthirtyeight offered an interesting post on the control of state legislatures. This is obviously a positive development for Democrats, who for over a decade saw their control over the states atrophy. However, this should not only concern Republicans, but send them shrieking in terror.

As Tom Schaller relates in his post, many of the Democrats in those legislatures prior to the 1994 Republican takeover were of the Southern variety. Many of these Southern Democrats were as conservative, if not more, than their Republican counterparts in the Midwest and Northeast. As a result, these Democrats at the local level were mostly members of the local political machine, rather than true progressive leaders. At the national level, many were holding the line against their northern, liberal brethren. The graph could probably better be written with 3 parties, the liberal Democrats, the Southern Democrats, and the Republicans.

Why this should be especially of concern for Republicans is obvious. Even though Democrats used to control the states to an even greater degree then today, the Southern Democrats could still be counted on to govern in a relatively conservative manner. Though not members of the same party, these state congressmen and their counterparts in the U.S. Congress could at least be expected to provide a relatively reliable means of blocking progressive reforms. Though the Republicans were in the minority, Conservatives were not.

The modern Democratic party, while certainly more of the "triangulation"-style Democrat of Bill Clinton then the liberal McGovern wing, is nonetheless far more liberal then any of the Southern Democrats, and on average supports a much more progressive agenda. The extent to which these Democrats control the state legislatures will determine the amount of cover that national politicians get when enacting major reforms. With a relatively more disciplined and unified party, the Democrats could potentially achieve the kind of political momentum not seen in any party since the 1950s.